72,000 possible retirements, one clearer decision.

01 / The problem

The model runs 72,000 retirement scenarios across OAS start ages, account types, longevity assumptions, and market regimes. It follows the interaction between withdrawals, taxable income, and OAS clawbacks.

The best claiming age depends on several uncertain systems at once. A single average return or fixed lifespan would hide the cases where the recommendation changes.

02 / The approach

Build the evaluation around the decision.

1. 01

   Simulated 2,000 lifepaths for each condition from age 65 through 110.

2. 02

   Used bull, bear, and neutral market regimes with changing return sequences.

3. 03

   Applied federal and provincial tax logic to RRSP withdrawals.

4. 04

   Compared RRSP and TFSA paths across OAS start ages from 65 to 70.

03 / The result

There was no single best age across every profile. Longevity, account type, and early market returns changed the outcome, which is exactly why simulation was useful here.